Storm tracker: System in Caribbean could become tropical depression this week
The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday it is continuing to track a system in the southwestern Caribbean Sea that could become a tropical depression later this week.
The hurricane center said a "broad area of low pressure" is likely to develop in a couple of days, and that gradual development is possible thereafter.
"A tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea," the NHC said in an advisory Tuesday morning. Forecasters give the system a 40 percent chance of formation in the next seven days.
Two conditions that have played a role throughout this hurricane season could allow yet another depression or tropical storm or even a hurricane to form: low wind shear and very warm water.
"If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form," said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
"If all the pieces come together, it could even become a hurricane," said AccuWeather Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert, in a telephone interview Monday, Oct. 28.
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Two different tracks are possible for the developing system in the Caribbean, DaSilva said. Based on very early predictions, timing for both scenarios would be Nov. 7 through Nov. 10.
The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.
NHC also tracking two systems in the Pacific Ocean
Hurricane center forecasters are also tracking an area of low pressure located about 1,550 miles west-southwest of the southern trip of the Baja California peninsula that is producing "disorganized shower activity," the NHC said Tuesday.
"Although there has been little change in this system over the past day or so, a tropical depression could still form in a few days while the system moves generally westward," forecasters said Tuesday. The system has a 40 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
Additionally, a "weak area of low pressure" located about 1,000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is also producing showers and thunderstorms.
While some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days, upper-level winds should become less conducive for the system to develop and the NHC gives the system a 20 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
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