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Where are the eggs? And why are they expensive? Here's what to know about prices and supply

Have you recently entered your local grocery store on the hunt for eggs, only to find they're noticeably more expensive − if you can find them at all?

It's not just your local shop. In fact, egg prices have increased nationwide by around 38% in the last year, bringing the average cost of one dozen up to $3.65 in November versus $3.37 in October and $2.14 in November 2023, according to the U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index.

Remember, $3.65 is just an average. According to the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), the wholesale price for a carton of large eggs on the New York market rose to $6.06 per dozen, while the Midwest region saw prices around $5.75 and California as high as $8.97, as of Jan. 3. In other cases, eggs simply are absent from shelves altogether.

The major reasons both experts and consumers are pointing to? The ongoing bird flu outbreak, the rising cost of doing business, and, in some locales, changing laws. When will things start to cool down? That may be a little harder to pinpoint.

Factor one: Bird flu

The ongoing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, or bird flu, outbreak is the most obvious reason for the country's current egg dilemma. The highly contagious outbreak strain, H5N1, emerged among poultry flocks and wild birds in Europe in the fall of 2020 before moving over to the U.S., Africa, the Middle East and Asia, becoming the largest such outbreak in the U.S.

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The USDA AMS said in a Jan. 3 report that grocery stores have seen "record-high prices" in retail markets across the nation, driven by "significant outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial table egg layer flocks through December."

As of Jan. 6, the virus has affected more than 130 million poultry across 50 U.S. states since January 2022, according to the CDC. Because of the massive spread, infected birds are being culled across the U.S., with casualties sometimes numbering into the millions at a single location.

"Eggs are sold on markets as commodities, like corn and wheat, and wholesale prices for eggs are driven largely by supply and demand," Emily Metz, President & CEO of the American Egg Board, told USA TODAY. "Our supply has been tight due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza which is devastating to egg farmers. In the U.S. we’ve lost more than 40 million laying hens this year to bird flu."

With flocks being killed or deemed infected, the very source of eggs, a grocery staple, is currently under massive strain.

"The supply of laying hens is diminishing while demand for eggs remains the same," Dallas-based economist analyst Amy Nixon told USA TODAY. "Unfortunately, cases of H5N1 have been increasing in recent weeks, which means supply will continue to be throttled and prices will rise more."

Factor two: Inflation

From farm to fridge, getting fresh eggs to the consumer requires a lot of logistics. The cost of manufacturing and shipping products has increased all around, hitting the agricultural industry hard.

With the prices of everything from gas to feed on the upswing, so too is the price of getting eggs on shelves. Average U.S. gas prices sit around $3.069 per gallon, according to AAA, which is roughly in line with average prices from a year ago, but prices are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Labor is on the rise too, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compensation costs for workers increased by 3.9% for the 12-month period ending in September 2024, part of an ongoing trend in labor prices that increased 4.6% for the 12-month period ending in September 2023.

Factor three: Law changes

Some states, like California, are being hit especially hard by egg woes, and part of that is likely due to state-level legislation.

California's Proposition 12, also called the Farm Animal Confinement Initiative, places restrictions on how hens, sows and veal calves can be kept.

The bill, which went into effect in recent years, in part banned confinement of egg-laying hens (chickens, turkeys, ducks, geese, and guinea fowl) in certain areas with less than 1 square foot of usable floor space per hen.

Other states including Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon and Washington have similar laws that specifically provide animal welfare protections to egg-laying hens.

This limits how eggs can be produced and what can be sold in each state. Those that only allow cage-free products already face issues with fewer suppliers and farms (a little more than a third of U.S. egg layers are cage-free, per the USDA). Manufacturers and sellers are also facing a slowdown as they change operations in order to comply with these laws.

Factor four: Supply, demand and timing

There are other factors that contribute to the issue as well. More Americans have been fiending for their daily egg breakfast in the past two decades, with per capita egg consumption increasing by 4.8% since 2000, according to United Egg Producers.

Farmers have mostly kept pace, increasing hen productivity over those same years with improved health and disease prevention, nutrition, genetics, and flock management. However, this steadily high and increasing demand can pose a problem when even a small snafu occurs in the supply chain.

Egg demand is also somewhat seasonal and peaks around the holidays, according to the USDA AMS, meaning a perfect storm of timing played a part in the current egg crisis.

“The volume of eggs sold at retail has been up year-over-year for 20 consecutive months and we’re just coming out of the winter holidays when egg sales are highest due to holiday baking and entertaining," said Metz. "These two forces [bird flu and seasonal demand] combined − tight supply and high demand − are directly causing the spike in wholesale prices we’ve seen recently. Although each retailer decides how much they’re going to sell eggs for in the store, higher wholesale prices usually impact retail prices.”

When will egg prices come back down?

Supply and prices will stabilize only when farms and producers can recover their stock of healthy, laying hens. USDA market forecast reports have recently reflected this by decreasing production predictions for the upcoming year.

“No one can predict the future, but bird flu remains an ongoing threat to our egg farms, and egg farmers are working around the clock to protect their birds, replenish supply and keep those eggs coming," said Metz. On a positive note, she said, farmers have a lot more experience fighting this disease now, meaning farms are able to recover faster.

With the outbreak still raging, however, it's unclear when that will happen. And, things may get worse before they get better.

"We may see a sudden spike in consumer demand, especially as fear spreads amongst consumers about future price increases and egg availability," said Nixon. "Many local grocery stores are already trying to get ahead of this by limiting shopper purchase amounts to two dozen. As we saw during the COVID pandemic, fear spreads as rapidly as viruses, leading to bizarre consumer hoarding behaviors."

She also pointed out that the spread of this strain to cattle and other animals means we may soon see a constrained supply of meat and dairy products, leading to higher prices in those categories as well.

"Being that it’s winter and the peak of flu season, this egg supply and price situation has the potential to get much worse in the next six weeks," Nixon said. "In other words, it may be wise for all the health and fitness New Year's Resolutioners to start seeking alternate forms of protein.  And that weekend omelet brunch with your friends?  Expect higher prices soon for that too."

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